Avoiding the next-wave of COVID-19 infections: How can HTA help?

A new dynamic simulation model is out!

Arnold Hagens is a visionary. By training, combining academic expertise in business economics and agricultural economics, as well as through an innovative lens constantly applied to research and predictive modelling at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.

As a disclaimer of conflict of interest, your Decide Hub must confess that it enjoys Arnold Hagen’s contribution to the current development of its flagship product named “Bolster” and which will offer a gamification experience to decision-makers interested in generating predictive scenarios to anticipate and prepare health systems transformation.

In a recent article published with colleagues, Arnold Hagens undertook to dive into “Reconstructing the Effectiveness of Policy Measures to Avoid Next-Wave COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Using a Dynamic Simulation Model: Implications for Health Technology Assessment”.

Based on data pertaining to the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, the study strives to dynamically model next-wave scenarios to assess the impact of prophylactic measures and policy restrictions such as lockdown on infection rates as well as mortality rates. The results?

The results show that the outcomes of the next-wave scenarios depend on number of infections of previous lockdowns. All scenarios reduce the incremental deaths compared with a no-measures scenario.

A fascinating exercise well worth reading: click here to access the study.